Caveat: I do not know the answer.
Caveat: I do not think I need to know the answer, I am happy with a 2% real return, for many of you that would be not a happy situation, perhaps. My requirements have gone down because of the past performance.
Caveat: Nobody has an answer, and far far more importantly do not use the past as an indicator of the future.
Well to start with let me restrict myself to the following asset classes: Debt instruments, equity, real estate, gold.
Strictly speaking I should also talk about horses, commodities like silver, oil, etc. However since I do not understand those assets, I refuse to talk about them. In the decade from 2003 to 2013 the returns that you got in equities was good? well even the returns on real estate, gold, and debt were too good, was it not? This happened because you are talking about the magical bull run of 2003-7.
So will the market go up 7 times in 10 years? Ha, some hope that. However, that is EXACTLY what I would have said in 2002 also!
So will the market be at 50000 in the year 2023? well it means a return of about 10% p.a.? Is it impossible? Well the chances are the market will surely reach 50k – and it could reach much earlier…however it could then come down to a lower figure. Guessing is a fools game.
Frankly it does not matter to me, and it should not matter to you also.
In the debt market we are at the top end of the cycle – but the interest rates may not come down too fast. The small guy is busy saving money, and the real big guys are saving it abroad.
Gold: I am sure that gold will not perform as well as in this decade as it did in the past decade. However guessing the price performance of gold is not my cup of tea. I personally do not invest, and that does not mean much.
So go out there and create a portfolio with about 50% in equities and the other 50% in other asset classes….at least over the next decade, you will have a POSITIVE REAL RETURN….OR so I think !!
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