For those (like me) who are always bullish on equities, it is nice to read the equities history.

The Russian Stock exchange got wiped out.

In Austria from 1900 to 2012 – you would have been ripped apart with 97 years of losses

In the US the returns from bonds has been BETTER THAN equities from 1980 to 2012.

The market can be irrational far far longer than you can be solvent.

Do you think all is well in the bonds market? Well, nein. Nyet. No. Nahin.

All the big banks in the US ( GS, JPM, BA) are the big players of US treasury bonds. When interest rates are low, banks have no great choice but to invest in LONGER TERM (do not ask me, the bankers know best). Which means the BANKS ARE NOT INTERESTED …in knowing what happens if ¬†¬† INTEREST¬† RATES GO UP….

I think J P M will treat it like a recent loss …of about US $ 50 billion saar…

 

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  1. nothing is rational…
    Anything & everything can be manipulated…
    Even in the bond market investor is not risk free, you will end up with interest rate risk, solvancy risk, inflation etc…

    I am a banker & i know how bank’s balance sheets are being manipulated….

    Only you are responsible for your profit or loss…

  2. Last month I phoned Flipkart for your book but was told it was not in print.,today also I was told the same thing,that it is not being published by the printing house. Please make this book availible as this the only way I can repay you by (buying your book). You said this in jest also.

  3. Respected Sirs,

    This letter is addressed to you because you have the authority to take decisions on many issues of serious nature facing our country. We all know our economy is in deeper troubles than what we are seeing in the media.
    We are dependent on FII money (money comes in to share market for trading – I do not want to tell this is investment) to pay our daily bills.
    Our industrial output is in -negatve zone for the past few months
    The car sales (leading indicator for money flow) is in -ve zone for the past few months
    Regarding current account deficit the lesser said is better. Good economists say the situation is similar to 1991(Good economists not like Ahluwalia type)
    The inflation is in double digit – I consider CPI as the true indicator and anybody who talkes about WPI is a cheat in my opinion as WPI

  4. ^^CPI is meaningless as well.infact all aggregate stats dont make much sense to the individual. can i go to the housing market and expect only a CPI %ge rise in prices? how about education or health?this averaging out business reveals less than it hides.
    everyone should construct his or her own index depending on their wants and needs.if i dont eat rice,i dont care if the price of rice goes up 1000 times.

  5. @Pravin-If the price of rice goes up 1000 times the price of flour will also go up as people will eat rice less & more of chappatti.

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