Well none of us know what next…but let us look at the crystal ball:

– we are at 16,200 on the sensex as I write this post. Do not rule out a 25% jump in about 12 months time – which is more than 3 years yield in the debt market.

– we all knew that there were scams. Some have come out, many have not yet. The arrest of Jagmohan Reddy has to be for Congress the negotiate the splitting of the 5-6000 crores that JR must be sitting on.

– a scam eruption HAS to by definition bring the markets down – as an acknowledgment of the eruption.

– markets could remain low / lower for 5-7 months. On the other hand it could scream to a high of 20,000 in 5 months. Do not look for logic in the short term. It does not exist.

– realty, infra, have been really hammered down, so the rise could be the fastest there.

-psu shares have also been beaten down, recovery could be good, but beware of the rogue promoter. The rogue promoter has also an arm called SEBI which says that all promoter holdings have to come below 75%. Now if Ongc, Ntpc, Nhpc, Coal India…were all to do it, the market would be flooded. Such a tap opening actually reduces the prospect of appreciation. Having said that Nhpc at 18 Rs. cannot be too great a risk, esp if the dividend yield is about 3.5%…

– interest rates will peak out say at 12% at retail level. At that stage invest in INCOME FUNDS OR GILT funds, hoping to benefit from a falling interest rate.

continue your SIPs

– if you hold pivotals (read Reliance, Hdfc, SBI, L&T, hdfc bank, Colgate, …etc.) bought at higher prices, average. Not because these are great shares (caveat I do not like RiL, L&T or Sbi – but I do have a few of them directly, and some more through mf holdings)

if you have bought some duds which are speculative in nature (you know them dont you?)..sell on rallies…

if in doubt put money in an index fund

if u are not insured take term insurance – the cheapest will also pay. However take it only from a company that you TRUST…

caveat: have given these shares just as an example..it could have read Tata Motor (dvr), TCS, Gillette, Oracle, Divis laboratories – i have these too 🙂 so caveat again.

 

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  1. hey the market could move in any range…the easiest thing to do is to keep one’s mouth shut. The 4 year punt I am willing to take is 11,500 to 30,000. Over a shorter duration it could be 14500 to 18500.

    I know only one thing, predicting is no fun. Nor is it necessary. If you have money for the long term put it in good quality of scrips…

  2. WOW – i love to see the 11500-14500.

    Simple strategy of increasing the SIP amount by 10% for every 5% drop in indices. 12,500-21,000 be the range until my target base is accumulated :).

    Need to retire rich you know.

  3. Subra

    wonder why you don’t like l&T… just curious..care to throw some light on your point of view?

  4. LnT is surely past its prime. No great strength which others cannot duplicate.

    No longer an awesome company – the image it once had. Remember i have this shares…and the quantity is in 4 digits. I will no longer buy more, only sell at jumps.

  5. Our Indian currency is already depreciated by 20%. Even if the stock market appreciates by 50% or more in coming 4 years, the net gain at International levels would be around 30%. Bad news for earlier FIIs and good news for new FIIs.

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