Set A: Statements we make:
‘Hdfc Top 200 is a fund which is DOING well…. Real estate prices ALWAYS GO UP in Mumbai…….
Gold prices are GOING up…. Real estate prices are GOING up…. Equity markets are DOING BADLY…..
We hear and make these statements, do we not?
What we mean is ‘Last time when somebody showed me some numbers…..THIS WAS HAPPENING.
In the year 2012 if you say ‘Equity shares are going down’ – do you mean from 1979, 2003, 2007, 2008 or 2012? Oh that I am not clear.
QUESTIONS WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE ANSWERS FOR, SO WE DO NOT DARE TO ASK:
If suppose the price of gold in 2024 is Rs. 46,000 has it gone up from 2012 or gone down? Has the return be good enough?
If the Sensex reaches 36000 in 2016, should you have bought shares in 2012?
If you need to live in a house in Kharghar should you have invested in land in Karnataka?
If you bought real estate, and the builder went bankrupt, is YOUR decision to buy a house from that builder, a poor investment decision?
Sadly since we cannot look into the future, and do not have the control over the future, we tend to make statements like the ones mentioned in set A. See the screaming anchors and not their language….’the market is falling’….today also it fell by 1%…etc. This normally tends to push the dormant investor into a frenzy, and just to feel good he does some transaction. It may have been unnecessary to make the move, but the fear, and greed make him do ‘something’ so that he can feel he has done some action!
Since we cannot look ahead, we keep looking into the future….this is like saying that since my windshield is BLOCKED totally, I will drive by looking into the rear view mirror.
If you are driving in the Sahara chances are you may not get hurt….but if you are driving around a mountain….the rear view mirror strategy WILL take you to heaven double quick!
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