Predicting is difficult as many experts have learned from their own past experience..

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Once when Brezhnev was taking his mother around his castle, showing off his cars and swimming pool, his mother asked him “Son, what if the Reds came back?” Or so goes a story. If you think there have been excesses in the American economy, please re-think. Top executives at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG (which […]

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  fuller version of this article of mine appeard in retuers under this heading: The Meltdown’ What to do?   As a colleague in the office told me, if you want to fail and you are expecting a storm, fail first! So some of the “early birds” got protection, and then the protection vanished! The […]

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Financial analysts try to determine the value of a stock by calculating a company’s discounted “free cash flow”. This is based on a series of computer models with assumptions about future sales, earnings and growth rates. These models are only as good as the programmers and analysts that build them. What you end up with […]

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