If you were not around to see the -46% of 1993, but were around to see 2008, then 2011 would have looked quite bad. Seeing your portfolio shrink by 25% (worse if you did not have Bharti, but had more of Reliance!!)…and if you were a $ investor, it was worse. Including the 19% fall of the US $, your portfolio would have been down by almost HALF!
This is not easy to think or accept. People who continued their SIPs would have also done badly – no doubt about that. Your opening portfolio (Jan 2011) would have been down, and so would have the SIP figure.
Obviously at this juncture we can ALL see the negatives and we all KNOW that the market will go down, do we not!!??. (Hey there are some readers who do not get the sarcasm, sorry). Well when on TV and other media you look at the ‘experts’ – their views are worth hearing…
-Markets will go down to 12000 (no clue why there is such a consensus for this number!) and the more optimistic ones are predicting 18000. Of course the very hardy, never say die guys predict 20,000.
Frankly I do not know what will happen.
However a bad year is rarely followed by a worse year (yes it has happened in the past, but I am taking a calculated call!)..which means a NEGATIVE 25% will not be followed by a negative year. So assuming that the index’s starting point is 15,500 for Jan 2012 (I am writing this on 2nd Jan at 9.30am and this is the current sensex), I think seeing the sensex at 19500 is not impossible. This means that the current year’s return would be about 25% – just wiping out the 2011 losses.
Will the Re – US $ be at 60? not sure. However if many NRIs start keeping their money in India (remember the rates of Nri deposits have improved) and the software exports do really well, we could see the exchange rate at 52 instead of 62!
Not guessing the sensex, but just punting on the fact that the IMMEDIATE past has NO BEARING on the IMMEDIATE future. Simple, is it not?
Post Footer automatically generated by Add Post Footer Plugin for wordpress.