It would be so nice if Mr. Market had a blog where he could come and say ‘From today till Nov. 2014 I am going to be a bear’. Since there is no such blog or tweet we keep guessing whether we are in a bull market or a bear market…as outsiders mind you!
It was Jan 2008 that the market was at 21000 – and then it kept slipping. I used to do a lot of training – and 2008 was really special. Many of them needed a ‘how to talk to the customer about a falling market’ kind of training!
I remember shocking the audience by saying ‘It COULD take 10 years for the market to cross the previous high. Now I have no clue whether what I said was right or wrong – I still do not know.
However I do know that in the last 3 years the market has really not gone anywhere. Yes there have been IPOs, scams, mutual fund churns, ulip sold, but the index has not gone up. Yes the market capitalisation of the country has gone up. Shares like Coal India have got listed…If you had done a SIP you would have got returns in the region of 1-2% over inflation i.e. about 10-11% p.a.
My take is we do not know whether we were in a bull market or a bear market over the past 3 years. How do I expect to know how it will be in the next 3 years? Well i do not know, and can only guess.
If you know what to do, great. I am just continuing my SIP (caveat – my mf portfolio is much smaller than my direct equity portfolio). Have sold some shares which I thought were overpriced, bought some shares which I thought were underpriced….but largely sitting on cash. Not wondering what to buy, but when to buy!!
Unfortunately money is in the s.b. a/c earns poor returns. Happily contributing to the already high CASA ratio of the private sector bank….
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