Market View: All experts

Many experts in the market now have a view on the market. This is of course only to be expected is it not? It is like when you thrust a mike in front of a person, suddenly he becomes a wise man (person?).

Mr. Ken Fisher who is himself a great fund manager and the son of Mr. Fisher whom Mr. Buffet recommends calls the market a “The Great Humiliator”. Whenever you risk predicting the market it does the opposite!

I have research reports from a big broking house (Oh my God, sent urgently from a Blackberry!), view of a CIO who said “the best bull run of our lives is over, Subra”, a technical expert’s report (on CD) that the market will see a 55% correction from its peak of 21000 – which means sensex will see 9827 (sorry maths or facts one of them is correct), and therefore I do not have a view. One very senior banker has a very pessimistic view on the “land bank” of most real estate companies. And particularly of one company – and he is expecting that to spoil the recovery party, if any.

All these views are pessimistic in the short run (which could be 5 years?). One expert said “it took the market 10 years to cross 4200 the previous peak – from 1992 to 2002” so you may see 21000 in 2018!! Vow! we as human beings love creating a trend where none exists! God save us.

I know only one thing – if your money is being invested for the long run (I am old fashioned I mean about 7-10 years) that money should be in equities. If it is for a shorter period (3-5 years) be in a balanced fund. If you have money for less than 24 months, be in debt instruments like FMP, or short term floater. As simple as that.

Will the market touch 10k before touching 21k? Please consult an astrologer.

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