Let me warn you the title has the word today just to attract you :-). I have no view at all about gold prices. Personally i do have gold, but no clue how much. In most cases the cost of acquisition is almost immaterial – it all happened decades back…..
Why is gold an awesome commodity?
1. It is an universal currency – and the Central bank hates that. When I say central bank it means all the central money regulatory authorities.
2. Most of the Central Bankers and Finance Ministers are just kicking the can down the road. If we had a limit on how much of fiat currency we could print, we would be bankrupt.
3. When a borrower cannot pay, he just does not. Ask any defaulting individual, corporate or a country. So lending against gold is still even internationally the safest way to lend.
4. Terrorist bribes in unmarked gold is common – this will also ensure the demand for gold.
5. One day we will return to the Gold Standard. The day the governments of the world decide to call off the fiat currency printing madness, this will happen. Not sure if I will be alive to see it. Ha.
6. Gold prices will fluctuate – see it expressed in various currencies and you will know that when currencies fluctuate gold prices do vary. So a fall in US $ may actually mean it has gained in Yen or in Rupee.
7. Indians will continue to buy gold: there is something which the Indians know about owning gold which the others do not.
8. Trying to draw a co-relation of gold prices to US $, yen, rupee, oil, is all fine – but it is a time pass activity, do not waste time. If you have spent 30 minutes doing that you have wasted 27 minutes at least.
9. How well gold performs against any OTHER asset, how it performs when the economy does well -or does badly, ….are just diversions.
10. Over long periods of time gold will beat inflation – and is a decent hedge against inflation – but with a caveat – it can suddenly pull the rug under your feet. That is exactly what scares people.
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