For most people who have seen a drop in wealth…and do not know what caused it. The most cruel impact the 2003-7 boom has had on people is they believe it can happen again. Subra, I am sure once more the market will move up 7 times in 5 years. We only do not know when…

God!!!  for heavens sake stop being so optimistic. You are saying the market will move from 20000 to 140,000 in 5 years? Well, er, I hope it does, but EXPECTING such a boom is absolutely foolish.

Markets will do well, sure, but will just about outperform the debt markets. Be ready for a long ride ahead. Be ready for a slow grind – where all the asset classes will do badly. If your equity, debt and real estate all sectors did badly, how well prepared can u be? Are you ready? What happens if you are retired? will your portfolio shrinkage be easy to handle? Not easy…

Am I sounding too bearish (in a week when I have busily picked up shares)…well, read on:

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  1. I would be happy if next 10 years I get an annualized yield of 15% that everyone keeps talking about one can expect from equity markets in long term. That itself is like multiplying current sensex by more than 4 times..
    Can we see index at close to 70K in 2020 based on the 2010 peak we saw of close to 20K 🙂 .. I hope so as I am keeping 2020 as a date when I can become financially independent [Retirement as people call it or resume of active hobbies as what subra preaches 🙂 ]

  2. You are not being bearish. You are just being realist.
    When planning for future or making assumptions regarding expected returns, one should never be too optimistic.
    For those who feel that markets would move to 140,000 in next 5 years…all I can say is AMEN. I wish your prayers are heard as it would benefit all of us. But as far as reality is concerned, this does not make much sense.

  3. Sir, u presume markets won’t go five folds in nxt 5 years, but many people are assuming the apartment they bought for 30 lacs two years back & their builder says it’s quoting at 45 lacs now are expecting an appreciation of 5 times (1.5 crs!!!) in 5 to 10 years.

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