You could take an optimistic scenario or a pessimistic scenario for 2012 and in the years to come…
Let me see….here I think PESSIMISTICALLY what can happen:
1. Collapse of the European Banking system: just because it is unable to bear the load, the banks will just collapse. In fact on 24th of Dec the Chinese Regulator told the banks ‘do not trust the Rating agencies…do your own effort.
2. Collapse of the Pound : UK is in as much of trouble as any other country in Europe…so it can also suffer as much as the others…be ready for the fall of the pound. Same is true for Germany – at some time they will REFUSE to ‘support’ the weaker cousins in a super big joint family of European nations……
3. Will ‘2’ lead to a fall in the Euro as well? I do not know!
4. The fall of the Rating agency: if a risk free, fee only business is also irresponsible (the Indian RBI Governor and the Chinese banking regulator have both called upon their banks to do their own thing AND NOT RELY ON THE RATING agency system! RIP rating agencies?
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