This is too attractive a title for you not to read it, correct?
Welcome. I have no clue when this will happen, but it will surely happen. In 3 years, 5 years, 7 years….? no idea. We are in what is called the second phase of a bull market – and you can find skeptics saying ‘Market is overheated’ , ‘it is liquidity driven’, ‘liquidity can dry up’….blah blah blah.
Also nobody, nobody, nobody really knows how the market will behave on a day to day basis or worse on an hour to hour basis. When the DTC was announced, and LTCG stayed at zero, i announced that the next day will see a ‘200 point gap up opening’ it turned out to be a ‘178 point GAP DOWN opening’ . There are many people whom I respect (market players) and none of them attempt a day to day commentary. So to say ‘We are over investing in optimism, and the market is BOUND to fail’ is perhaps as foolish as saying ‘There is nothing happening in the Western world so Indian markets will not see any inflow’. We do not know, so let us accept that we do not know.
If you have bought a share for Rs. 34 last year and it has reached Rs. 129, it is a great share to sell immaterial of how sure you are that this would reach Rs. 2900. Not because it will not, but even leaving 500 shares for that eupohira is fine, at least sell the 4500 that you are holding. After all 500*2900 is not a bad number, is it?
To think that the market will open low because the American markets were low or the Indian markets will open low because the SGX Nifty is quoting at a discount is a fine thought, – but that is all pure speculation ..
Will the market cross 21k? will it cross its previous top? Not sure, but there is a lot of buying -by the FII for sure, there are 20 reasons to buy and 40 reasons to sell. The price/book value is not fair, the p/e s too high, ….all great reasons for the market to go down.
However there is a big joker sitting in the name of FII who is looking to get better than the treasury yields of the bankrupt US government. This joker has very close to zero cost of capital. He is happy if he gets 4% p.a. returns after adjusting for exchange rates, he is thrilled. You are looking for 24% return – that is the problem.
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