According to Mark Galasiewski, editor of Elliott Wave International’s Asian Financial Forecast – Sensex will hit 100000 by 2024. His report identifies India as one of the “baby bulls” along with Taiwan, New Zealand and Korea.
I am not getting into whether it is possible or not. Frankly my wealth (or lack of it) is not a function of the market. Yes of course if the market hits 100,000 say 8 years from now, my portfolio’s life will get extended by another 100 years, and I nor my wife should live that long 🙁
Will the sensex reach 100,000. Let me answer this question in 2 parts..
If I had come to you in 2008 and said ‘markets cannot sustain this 19% growth ..it will grow at 10% ONLY going forward..so in 2024 it will reach 100,000
Chances are you would have laughed and said ‘sir markets ALWAYS grow at 22%…so it will reach 100,000 in 2016, so please shut up.
Where as when i am telling you in 2016 that it is going to take 8 years for the market to reach 100,000 your immediate reaction is “what nonsense” how will they…blah blah…
What rate of growth do you need for the sensex to reach 100,000 in 2024?
It needs to grow at 20% CAGR. Is 20% cagr unheard of over a 8 year period? Not sure, but sounds difficult BUT SURELY not impossible. Fairly obviously it will create a life changing amount of wealth for a lot of people. In fact for people in the withdrawing stage it is an awesome thing to happen. So people in their 80s should be rejoicing with this news (true or whether it will happen is incidental). However if you are 40 or under, this cannot be great news especially if your income curve is like a typical curve rising to the right. You will be getting more money now for investing and it will get invested in higher and higher markets.
Being able to sit tight in a rising market too is not so simple and it will take a toll on your patience. Will you hold on till it reaches 100,000? will your own fund underperform the index? will you be in those shares that go up 5 times? or will some part of your portfolio go up 100 times (remember that is the number for Bhel in the period 2002 to 2007)? Not very easy questions to answer.
In 2008 Shankar sharma said that the market will not touch 100,000 in his life time. I did a post saying why SS was wrong..it was in Subramoney but under wordpress. Please read the comments too…
ps: i have no clue where the sensex will be in 10 years. I have no clue what is Mr. SS’s age. Nobody has a clue on how long any of us will live – including the sensex.
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