According to Mark Galasiewski, editor of Elliott Wave International’s Asian Financial Forecast – Sensex will hit 100000 by 2024.   His report identifies India as one of the “baby bulls” along with Taiwan, New Zealand and Korea.

I am not getting into whether it is possible or not. Frankly my wealth (or lack of it) is not a function of the market. Yes of course if the market hits 100,000 say 8 years from now, my portfolio’s life will get extended by another 100 years, and I nor my wife should live that long 🙁

Will the sensex reach 100,000. Let me answer this question in 2 parts..

If I had come to you in 2008 and said ‘markets cannot sustain this 19% growth ..it will grow at 10% ONLY going forward..so in 2024 it will reach 100,000

Chances are you would have laughed and said ‘sir markets ALWAYS grow at 22%…so it will reach 100,000 in 2016, so please shut up.

Where as when i am telling you in 2016 that it is going to take 8 years for the market to reach 100,000 your immediate reaction is “what nonsense” how will they…blah blah…

What rate of growth do you need for the sensex to reach 100,000 in 2024?

It needs to grow at 20% CAGR. Is 20% cagr unheard of over a 8 year period? Not sure, but sounds difficult BUT SURELY not impossible. Fairly obviously it will create a life changing amount of wealth for a lot of people. In fact for people in the withdrawing stage it is an awesome thing to happen. So people in their 80s should be rejoicing with this news (true or whether it will happen is incidental). However if you are 40 or under, this cannot be great news especially if your income curve is like a typical curve rising to the right. You will be getting more money now for investing and it will get invested in higher and higher markets.

Being able to sit tight in a rising market too is not so simple and it will take a toll on your patience. Will you hold on till it reaches 100,000? will your own fund underperform the index? will you be in those shares that go up 5 times? or will some part of your portfolio go up 100 times (remember that is the number for Bhel in the period 2002 to 2007)? Not very easy questions to answer.

http://www.wisdomtimes.com/blog/elliot-wave-forecasts-sensex-at-100000-by-2024/

In 2008 Shankar sharma said that the market will not touch 100,000 in his life time. I did a post saying why SS was wrong..it was in Subramoney but under wordpress. Please read the comments too…

http://www.subramoney.com/2008/09/shankar-sharma-you-are-wrong-sir/

Shankar Sharma: You are wrong!

ps: i have no clue where the sensex will be in 10 years. I have no clue what is Mr. SS’s age. Nobody has a clue on how long any of us will live – including the sensex.

 

 

 

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  1. If we assume that BSE Sensex is currently following foot steps of Mega BULL market from 2003 end till 2008 beginning in that time frame it tripled from 5000 to 20,000 then by those standards, once the market bottoms in current scenario then we have a real shot at 60,000 (20,000 x 3).

    Time frame: 3-5 years after market bottom

    But Why? and What will cause this effect?
    1. Global turmoil will push capital controls in various countries world-wide
    2. Debt markets will feel the pain causing credit crunch
    3. Possible meltdown of real estate bubble in China, India, Canada, Australia, etc.
    4. Precious metals soaring HIGH but due to capital controls, average people will not be able to BUY it in bulk.

    Where will investor put their money to work!!!
    Ofcourse in STOCK MARKET where it is safe from government controls and this will fuel the next MEGA BULL market of your life time…

  2. It might even hit that spot earlier or in a bubble!!!

    Consider this: Sensex@100000 means Nifty at approx 33000. In a bubble, a 28 PE on forward multiples is a reasonable assumption for Indian markets. This means CNX EPS around 1200. With current EPS around 400, a 15% CAGR will achieve this in 8 years :). Even a few sluggish years now and an accelerated earning grown around 2020 will create the ideal condition for the bubble 🙂

    However, with the rapidly changing world and shakiness of the established drivers lead to a question as to what will drive growth and income in India and in the world?

    With rapidly evolving digital led automation, the hi-tech manufacturing may return to US shores and low-end manufacturing is unlikely to move out to China given the overcapacity and devaluing yuan.

    Cheap Oil, if it stays, will help only in the short run but might boomrang in medium-long run as this will not only lead the rupee to appreciate, badly hurting IT and any manufacturing, but also dent the prospects of Indian remittances and export income from Middle East.

    Given the vast unemployable population and their basic need to populist state support may derail the whole political will to reform leading to further chaos, worse than the staus quo.

    With NRI remittances dwindling and IT salaries stagnant, it is unlikely that either the RE will take off, or the banks will be able to collect their dues and resume credit expansion. Inevitable populist moves will keep the food and service inflation high and hence the tighter monetary policy.

    I wonder where is the silver lining ?

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