It is the job of the experts and the channels to make predictions about how much the index will be in December 2016. So let me say it will surely cross 10,000 in the calendar year 2016. Frankly does it matter?
Lesson no. 1: stop reading all the nonsense about ‘best fund for 2016’ or ’10 great companies for 2016’….honestly it does not matter. Porn titillates but it does not serve any good long term purpose. So get to the more sensible things to do.
Every Tom, D and H and his aunt Elda predicted a super strong 2015 based on Na Mo’s 300+ seat majority, but it did not turn out to be so, did it? WE were all optimistic, but I was pushed to selling all the PSU shares which had gone up on the Na Mo euphoria. I got most of them again, at a much lower price. Predictions can be well intentioned, but there are so many going around that you have no clue what to do with all those predictions. They just fly by you, thick and fast. I need to read a few of them, but thankfully, that does not impact my investing. It helps me in my writing – I need to know what others are writing, right?
Making changes in your investments for your retirement (which is 16 years away) or your daughter’s education (which is 12 years away) should not be done on the basis of some seer telling you what is going to happen in the economy in the next 12 months. It is an amazingly stupid thing to do, and makes no sense. The Seer could be wrong, and your luck you may have picked the guy who got it right in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. That sets you thinking, whether it was guess work, plain luck or a wretched trend which look great just till you put in your money!!
What really matters?
- Having a plan matters: http://www.subramoney.com/2012/01/why-financial-planning/
- Have a proper Investment strategy: Have an investment philosophy statement. Search on this blog you will find it for sure.
- Do your risk profiling properly, and based on that get your asset allocation right.
- Discipline matters: Make SIP as a core of your investing steps. Make sure that you get at least 11 of the 12 sips right on time.
- Do a year end review, and make sure that you have not missed any instalment.
- Know the difference between diversifying and diworsifying.
- When I get portfolios for review, I find them like a dhobi list, not a sensibly build portfolio..be careful.
- Remember that Wall street, Dalal street, ..are constantly bombarding you with new products. If you are over 35, you are unlikely to need ANY new product. Chances are you have them already. So ignore the badgering.
Now go and implement it.
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