The easiest thing to do was to predict – in the 1980s and even in the 1990s. However now with the electronic media keeping tabs on your writings predicting has become difficult, if not downright risky.
Still I am willing to stick my neck out and say the following:
1. The US interest rates are now at 2.3% p.a. – and is surely headed NORTH. Now we could have said that at the beginning of the year too – when the interest rates were about 2.98%…but we were all wrong. What is happening? Foreign inflows are ensuring that interest rates in the US and in Germany are kept low. Amazing stuff…but but..when interest rates go up, who will buy the bonds? I know only the sellers. That is going to be fun.
2. US markets are up (equity) ..hey buy the locals are selling equity and buying a lot of debt. So when the bond holders are unable to sell their bonds, what impact will it have on their equity markets? Keep guessing. I do not have an answer either.
3. US equity and bond markets will see far more volatility in 2015 than it saw in 2013 and 2014
4. Emerging markets (including India) will see lots of cash flow – IN and OUT. So the Indian markets (Equity and Debt) may see more cash inflows, markets may go up, there will be many big IPOs, …and volatility will be high. Very good time for brainy investors – a blind random pick market may be dead….
5. Geopolitical risks may be up, but India is likely to attract some more money.
6. Namo has done well, but the jury is still out on his luck, track record, etc…..
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