However a bad year is rarely followed by a worse year (yes it has happened in the past, but I am taking a calculated call!)..which means a NEGATIVE 25% will not be followed by a negative year. So assuming that the index’s starting point is 15,500 for Jan 2012 (I am writing this on 2nd Jan at 9.30am and this is the current sensex), I think seeing the sensex at 19500 is not impossible. This means that the current year’s return would be about 25% – just wiping out the 2011 losses.
This is actually from a post of mine on 2nd Jan 2012 about the index at the end of the year i.e. Dec 2012 types.
I had forgotten about this till one reader pointed it out…his name is vinitb……….thanks Vinit.
Let me assure you this is LUCK. I have predicted many times in the past and that too accurately. That makes the exercise even more risky. I have NO clue where the sensex or the nifty will be in Dec 2013. Honest to God. 2012 calendar year has been a good year – and there is no pattern AT ALL in life with which to predict the next year’s return based on the past year’s return. If i do predict it with a lot of research it would still be a future babble. Yes i have got it right in the past, and may get it right in various future attempts too. Famously I remember predicting 9000 when the index was 12000 and saying – ‘not much lower I dare say’ . It actually happened. Luck, naseeb, thukka,…just goddamn luck and guesswork. NOT SKILL.
My skill? In telling a big crowd at a sensex level of 14000 – DO NOT WORRY I AM SURE THAT OVER THE NEXT 5-7 YEARS you will see 28000. I still stick to that number over the next 4 years….28000 for sure.
Will it touch 28k and come back? no clue! It will reach there.
Frankly for me to make money, I HAVE NEVER, EVER, NEVER had to ‘predict’ the sensex. I can with decent sense see how good/ bad a company management is. Seriously, I do not need to see beyond that. Numbers? Well if you do your job well, numbers will follow, right?
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