Future is still hazy…
How people love a rising market! So one good day and the world wants to announce that the worst is behind us.
My foot. Remember it took a long time for the world to recover from the Lehman collapse – a company who had an audited balance sheet. When it comes to countries, you are talking of non existent balance sheets, a reserve bank which has many secrets, guaranteed revenue leakages, riots, – a guaranteed collapse of at least Greece and perhaps Italy.
How will the market react to this? NO clue, no idea whatsoever!
Will the dollar tank? Will the dollar appreciate? No clue.
What will happen to the EURO? Is Japan doomed, or is it just the darkness before the dawn?
Is it sunlight in USA or is it just the dawn?
We all have a vested interest in the markets going up, so we keep predicting a bull market.
Geo
I think we will not make a new high till 2014.
There is a strong possibility that ECB will print money
Reasons
1.France downgrade did not cause much of a shock in the markets as expected. May be because smart money knows printing is on the way and this downgrade will only help the cause by forcing ECB to print
2.The debt these countries have is unimaginable. Austerity measures alone will not suffice. It will result in a decade of no growth and high unemployment in these countries
3. Only Germany is now opposed to printing. All the others are for it.
If this happens we can expect a rally akin to the one we saw in 2009-10.
Dheeraj
Infact this is a good market for traders.. but not for investor… Many ppl I know made 30%-40% profile in different shares and booked it..
When market comes down.. these ppl will again pick selective stocks and will again exit with handsome retruns…
subra
vow Dheeraj – can u imagine the wealth of a guy who can grow say Rs. 2 crores at 30-40% over 30 years? Awesome their wealth should be.
Dheeraj
Well, I dont know such big players Subra.. these are IT guys which I am talking about (usually buy shares of worth 60k – 80 k at a time) who bought reliance communication, lanco infra, uco bank etc.. which are moved up quite a bit from their recent lows…
I am talking abt profit in terms of %. And I think there must be many more ppl like these who bought shares when nifty was around 4550 recently..
param
it is funny how these IT guys must be getting rated on their appraisals! or perhaps they were super geniuses who are great at software development as well financial markets at the same time.
the capacity of human brain to over-estimate its capability is amazing!