Yesterday I met a guy who has been a bear for a long time…Last year Dec 2011 he had told me the following:

1. Volumes will shrink in 2011, and a few brokerage houses will go down.

2. I had asked him “Is Reliance a good buy at about Rs. 12oo”. He said why not wait till it hits Rs. 600…he still holds that view. He says at Rs. 450 it might become a good buy.

3. He said ‘today the market will tank 250 points (sensex). And he said this around 7pm yesterday ….

4. In Dec 2010  he had said ‘”Sell all your shares in the first week of Jan 2011…and buy it back in Dec 2011 AT HALF THE PRICE….

Well for 2012 the following seem worrisome:

Oct Nov, Dec 2011 quarter’s results will be really bad. This is because this quarter will feel the FULL IMPACT of the interest rate hike

Oil prices have been at an all time high, sales have been sluggish….and mood not so great. So Jan is likely to see further shrinking of volumes and therefore even lower prices….till March the markets look bad….but my SIPs continue…

 

WELL WELL..

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  1. Sir,

    Thanks a lot for lots of wonderful articles.

    I liked the ending of the article “but my SIPs continue…”. Hopefully SIPs methodology will not fail over period of 3 to 5 years.

    what did your friend say this December :-)?

  2. You write a article about trustee and the worst case scenario .Then you write about prediction of 2012.

    It might be easy to predict market than what you are gonna put up in your blog the next day.

    Worst case scenario is worst to even think. And you still say to continue your SIP in MF 🙂

  3. Now Subra that’s playing to the gallery as the sentiment goes from bad to worse.

    “Interesting predictions: should have been out in prospective time not in hindsight.

    Its too late to take them seriously.

    The worst fears are coming true out there.

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