I am not getting into whether the future is very bright or very bleak. That is not the aim.
Clearly the world that matters i.e. the so called developed world is living beyond its means, and the rest of the world does not know what to do. The Greeks classify everything as a dangerous profession so that they can retire early. All of them draw a pension from a government which is bankrupt – rather bankrupted at least twice over. Paying taxes in Greece is like a joke. The Germans want to bail out the Greeks so that they can continue in the EU, the Chinese are willing to buy EU bonds so that they can continue to sell to the EU. However all this makes no sense, because the EU’s currency is becoming a joke.
Other countries like France and Italy are not in great shape either. The US is also not in a great shape…and all of us look to Bernanke as a great Economic wizard. He at worst is cheating us and at best is a joker. The dollar is not at Rs. 20 against the Rupee, because the Rupee at 20 will make our exports so expensive that Narayana Moorthy’s Body Shop will never make money (Chetan Bhagat used the word first, I did not).
Now all this adds up to just one thing. The old guys are strong. Very strong. They will not let the status quo change. Remember it took two world wars and a bunch of Anglo Saxons to dethrone the Pound and make the Dollar the new currency of the world. Today the Euro is a joke and nobody (really nobody) trusts the Chinese. So the Dollar will reign as the king or Queen. The Americans are the biggest cheats (if you are wondering how they have so many chemical patents, see what they did to the chemical companies of Germany at the end of the Second World War). They will impose tariffs (sugar for e.g) and hound other countries for imposing duties. They will cheat, cry, squeeze, …do all that is possible to remain where they are. They love democracy so much they keep it all to themselves – and try to crush it everywhere else. They own all the banks in the world (when did you realise that more than 70% of Hdfc, Hdfc bank and Icici bank are held by them?). They will sell Junk food in other countries (McDonalds, Coke, Pepsi to name a few) and crib about the pharma companies profitability too! They create the disease first..
Now where should you invest?
Be ready for a hard grind. US, Europe, etc. will NOT want the status to change. They will want Chinese and Indian labour FREE.
American companies will make money (forget whether they SHOULD), their brands will sell well because they have created a brand-slave generation (Gillette, Coke, Pepsi, McD, Starbucks,) ..India will do well, so do not worry.
Stop worrying, start living….
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