V shaped recovery!

There are many people wondering whether this is a bear rally or a bull rally. Unfortunately only with time can one say whether the recovery will be V shaped, U shaped or L shaped!

There are many fantastic signals to say that this is a bull rally. ONe is the sharpness/ shrillness of the ‘pyt’s who come on business channels and tell you how bad the things are. If a measure has been introduced say in 1998 – there is a good chance that ‘worst ever’ fall in its history means NOTHING ! 10 years’ history in an economic measure is a joke!

The markets have come of the highs, and similarly they will come off the lows. So when it goes from 21k to 18k surely many of us may have thought of that as a temporary blip. However it came down all the way to 8k. Similarly it can rise from 8k to 11k and then stagnate. Even if it does stagnate at 11k for ONE YEAR, you need to know that 8k to 11k is itself a V. If you missed that, you have missed the first 35% of the growth! So a V can become a W or it can become a V with a steep valley like feel on the sensex and the nifty. What really matters is what happens to your own portfolio. My mother who holds shares of Hero Honda, eid parry, coromandel fertiliser, hdfc did not see as much an erosion in her portfolio as my wife – who has cholamandalam dbs, crest animation, deccan gold, tata power and L&T!

So forget what the media says (why are they now not screaming about the profitability of IOC, HPCL and BPCL – were they not screaming when the price was $ 147?

Simply because dog bites man is not news, it does not matter if the media keeps talking of man bites dog stories – unless of course if it is true, and you are the man!

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