This is continuing form yesterday…

Many people who ask questions like “Is Sun Pharma finished” or “Should I short Hdfc bank” or “Is this the end for Lupin”…amuse me. Not because they ask such questions, but they have no ability to process questions which I ask them further.

I never ever initiate such questions, but people think I know everything about the markets. Telling them I know nothing does not help, so these days I ask them some counter questions.

How much of Sun Pharma turnover comes from USA and how much from South Africa?

Well this question is enough for him or her to go on to “what do you think of Kajaria ceramics.

People who read news papers and even glorified shit like The Economist suddenly think that they know something which the market does not. They do not realize that there are analysts who pay money to the paanwala outside a factory to tell them about worker disgruntlement. No, it is not funny. A person holding 500,000 shares of a company will make a trip and find a paanwala willing to tell him juicy gossip about worker unrest or worker happiness. I HAVE MET SUCH INVESTORS/ ANALYSTS. These people get and DIGEST all the information on a 24 hour basis. So stop feeling just because you read something, the market is yet to react to that. Stop fooling yourself you……

Actually this is ‘information availability bias’ – they have read something. So it must be important, and since it is from the Economist, I must use it in my conversation. Also since I do think this is important I think it is not in the price. EEEkss shit!

If there are 200 people tracking the company – promoters, auditors, analysts, top employees, vendors, bankers – already know the shit you have read. So stop pretending that you learnt something new because you read a research report or a news item. Some of these are plants MEANT for you to read and then decide to buy or sell a share. If you still have not understood how the media works, more than doing research about a company, learn to track the money. Once you track the money you will know who says what. For example when 9/11 happened Warren Buffett said “in the next few years we are sure to see one Nuclear Attack in the USA”. He is a wise man so he must have had some basis to say this. Right? Bull shit. You want to know what his General Insurance company was selling? You got it right. Nuclear Insurance.

Shah Rukh Khan must have made tons of visits to USA. When he was about to release “My name is Khan” he created a fuss and got a cabinet minister to handle his PR..got the whole media to talk about it. He was never ever stopped in USA or anywhere else.

You must learn how to read the media. If you do not know how the media works, if you do not know how ANALysts reports are planted for you, be careful to learn all this BEFORE you ask me “Is Hdfc bank in trouble” or “Will Yes Bank recover from its bottom”. I am not even saying “I do not know”. I actually do not care whether you know, understand, act, or react. Its none of my business.

And ha! I am not authorized to give ‘portfolio’ advise. I am supposed to get a license to do it.

 

 

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  1. Sir

    A very good writeup in typical Subra style cutting wit. However your very valid observation on professional analysts having so many modes of assessing (Paanwaalah being one of them) makes me wonder as to whether a retail investor (with a full time job) has any chance of winning this game.?? We may read all the ARs, QRs but by the time we get around to actioning on them, won’t the markets have already priced the implications?

    Very keen to hear your thoughts on this

  2. It is simply a business.
    There is no body,really NOBODY to help you earn money,yes including Subra Sir as well!!!
    What he does,
    Starts a thought process that may HELP you,that is ALL
    It is your logic that makes you Rich or Poor,not any thing else
    Get out of KG classes!!!

  3. That is trippy. It is startling, to see that there are people paying paanwala outside the factory to get info about the company. It feels as if a CBI investigation by a group of people who are interested in getting first hand information – like an insider information through micro-inspection on the ground rather than through papers. Perhaps they have Sr managers of the co. followed and find out whom they meet and stuff, what deals they are pursuing..

  4. “If you do not know how the media works, if you do not know how ANALysts reports are planted for you, be careful”

    I don’t know whether it was intentional or not, but liked the way you put it in the CAPS

  5. Very true, when the market is going down in a heap we can see articles which say “Here is the list of stocks that can give you 25% in next 6 months”. How on earth do they decide that 20% number and where will these people be after 6 months? Will they backitup with a follow up article that shows how those stocks performed after 6 months?

  6. Are you really serious when you call The Economist glorified shit? Maybe it is not good in predicting stock market but isn’t it too pretentious to call it that?

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