a few days ago I wrote some 4-5 points on deadly investment mistakes that have ruined wealth…here are a few more…

  1. Investing in a high flyer company: when things go wrong all his businesses are impacted. So if say Vijay Mallaya had an Nbfc do you think the airline failure would not have impacted that? Suzlon was a darling of the press when he took over a company in Germany (remember the name?), Sun Pharma took over Taro (long bloody battle). So suddenly if something goes wrong with one part of the high flying business, the PE for the group changes and changes dramatically. Having all your shares in Tech stocks, or sugar or….does not matter. If it is a high profile entrepreneur with a pe of 34, you know YOU run the risk. Here your high profile risk, concentration risk, liquidity risk will all play a role in decimating your portfolio. We have seen it so often!
  2. Investing in companies which are high profile and stay like that for a real long time. Take ILFS. Many of us used to wonder what entitles the top management to such high salaries. Then you did not know whether it was your own subtle jealousy or you were completely out of touch with the salaries market. When I did my CA the salary limit was Rs. 1.35L PER ANNUM in the Companies Act. So I could not ever reconcile myself to Rs. 25 crores salary + Rs.360 crores of stock options. I did audits of companies which had this kinda turnover!! So when I heard of those kinda salaries I just balked…but had no clue how to react. I stayed away from ILFS due to personal reasons – though I kept flirting professionally – I never owned any of their shares. In fact I have had arguments with one Value fund manager about Noida Toll bridge. Ha that was a famous fight, and I am not getting into those details here.
  3. Style Risk: Just like concentration risk some fund managers chase one particular style. Dividend yield, or mnc or …and this means you will end up chasing some companies immaterial of pe. For example PnG, Colgate, Gillette, even Apollo Hospitals – have always got very high PE. At what stage do you choose to get out of the value trap or style trap? difficult if you run a concentrated small portfolio – but remember they made you a lot of money in the past. Keeping emotions in control is tough for a small / retail investor. At least a fund manage works with some rules..and supervision. They still err…
  4. Fraud: almost impossible to detect till the end. Vakrange. High flier, now reduced to a rubble. From Rs. 400 to Rs. 40. Has been a painful journey. Looks like the end. Suzlon. Kwality Foods. I am just picking up the recent and clear examples. Remember I do a lot of work with a lot of Nbfc – so I am not in a hurry to name them all. (I had Varange, have Suzlon, was lucky to sell KF at 150+).

 

more to follow…

 

  1. Hi Subra sir,
    On (2) I see that market participants and long time investors differentiate between large-cap and small-cap very markedly in India. If sales growth is 1-2%, and if it is a large cap the investors pardon this and let the price of these to be high (Dabur, Gillette, Glaxo health – negative sales growth even..). But for small cap industries with higher-sales growth, (Swasti Vinayaka, PTL), even the RoCE, RoE & profits are reasonably good. But Market misprices them badly. A value investor may think it is a golden opportunity, but the value is never unlocked. One has to be very patient, emotional control, Gurus say. But for how long…

    The question I have in mind is – had investors invested in high flier companies like the ones you mentioned equally distributed (instead of small caps), investors had made much money in past 5 years say (reasonably long time) and beats the value investor (who invested in small caps). In next 5 years these may continue to beat these small caps too.. The other thing is the ‘foreign’ brand. Indian obsessed with foreign co. Look at Nestle for eg… very pricey… What is strategy here?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>