The worst 2 things that we can do in Jan of any year is to make resolutions and predict markets. You will break the resolutions and your predictions will be wrong. I have predicted every year and got it right many times. That is worse. Simply because it was just luck, not skill. So let me tell you what will benefit you:
- Saving more will dramatically improve your returns: there is no doubt that if you save more and convert that into investing will improve your return.
- Saving is more important – short bond funds and ultra short bonds giving you about 7% is not bad at all. So keeping your money in these funds will not be too bad after all. I don’t see why this will be different from 2018.
- How you perform in 2019 is a function of badly you got hurt in 2018. If you had a lot of money in debt do a STP into a variety of funds – large cap, mid cap, US funds, value funds. It hardly matters especially if you are going to withdraw in 2038.
- Don’t listen to fund managers who recommend expensive ‘solutions’ like funds with 2%+ as charges. There is nothing that you cannot do it yourself.
- Banking will do well, but remember you may not make money because shares are fully priced, so be careful.
- Amc will continue to Fob you off by launching NFO and telling you how it is different. This is because they cannot charge too much in their existing big funds. Understand what makes money for whom – follow the money, you will know why PMS and AIF are being marketed more aggressively.
- Your asset allocation – of more in equity – will make more money – in the long run. That statement will not change in 2020, 2035, or 2120..
- Raise your levels to see why media talks in a particular way – again follow the money. Media is here to make money for its shareholders, the viewer is the product. Like they say if you are getting something free, YOU are the product.
- Fund managers and media will talk of a 5 year view in a difficult market, but you should take a 10 year view especially if you are a new investor.
- Some new asset – cryptocurrency, real estate, gold, US $, – something will look like a great investment for 2019. However you will know this ONLY in Jan 2020. In retrospect, it will look OBVIOUS, but it will be not visible today. Don’t let that frustrate you. We will all go through that.
- Doing a SWP from equity for your expenses worked well in 2017, but it did not work in 2018. I do think that 2019 is also more like 2018, and it will be a SIP or STP year and not a good SWP year.
- Diversifying will help and use the debt fund well. Accumulate in debt and do a STP continually especially if your income is not a consistent one – like a doctor, actor, etc.
- Neither the media nor the psephologists know who is going to win the 2019 election. I am sure in 2023 you will not care about 2019. So don’t let your worries stop you from investing.
- Market will give you a great opportunity to buy if there is a fractured mandate in the Indian General elections – and make sure that you have enough cash AND GUTS to invest in the markets.
,,,wait for 2020 for more nonsense like this. In 2020 I will tell you “I told you this will happen” – read the article again, I am fully hedged.
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