Saved from the bubble…

I have been saved many times in the past. It is clearly Lord Almighty who saved me…I just got lucky I guess.

Let me enumerate…

In 1992 we had to buy an office and decided to fund it by selling some shares….phew…or we would have been blown to bits, would have lost money on most of those shares! Luck.

2007 I bought Ken Fisher’s book and read it on the journey from VT to Nerul – it is a one hour journey. Decided to sell most infra stuff like Tata power, LnT, Kotak bank, Cholamandalam – according to Ken these shares just did not fit my style! What an RoI on that book – “Only 3 Questions to ask” – the return is clearly infinite!!

Now come to bitcoin. I did not participate because of the speed at which it was going up. If a currency has to be store of value, it has to go up slowly. So I decided not to participate in the Bitcoin tamasha.

Why?

Because a bubble almost always encompasses you! If I had invested say Rs. 300,000 in bitcoin and it had become say Rs. 50,00,000 I WOULD NOT HAVE SOLD it. It gets very addicting to hold on to a winning position and you do not feel like liquidating the same. To get out of a bubble before it bursts, you have to be extremely smart, extremely lucky — or both. I am extremely lucky – I could have been killed in the BSE Bomb blast of 1992 – I escaped by about 30 minutes! Smart? well the jury is still out on that!

It is very difficult to spot a bubble! Look at the BFSI space now. Do the Life insurance companies, and the asset management companies deserve this kinda vulgar pricing? I know not. I do hold a position in a few NBFC and a couple of life insurance companies. Is it my greed or lack of understanding or just stupid unwillingness to reduce position (at least partly as my broker says) in a winning hand. I am convinced that if I sell a few of those shares today I will regret it in June 2018 but will be thrilled in Jan 2019! I am still not reducing the weight in my portfolio. Stupid? I do not know! I did see the pharma valuation break, and that is not enough for me to be sure that I will be able to get out of the BFSI Cindrella party at 11.59. I am sure it is already 11 past something…

Even Charles Mackay, fell for the Railway stocks boom on 1840…..you want to know who is he?

Aw come on Google it. Or ask Amit Trivedi.

 

 

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One Response to “Saved from the bubble…”

  1. Which book of Ken Fisher did you read subra?

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