Let’s face it – Infosys in cricketing parlance is more like a Rahul Dravid or Dhoni and is not like Kohli or Ashwin. It is a spent force and there is very little juice left. It will have to do gimmicks like bonus and buy back simply because it does not have anything imaginative to do.
However, as an investor you need to respect CASH. And all the IT companies still have a lot of cash coming out their ears and noses as well. Like ITC – its fmcg is a disaster, but the tobacco is putting a lot of cash in its till.
So learn to respect cash, and its ability to generate cash. Both Infosys and TCS are going to struggle with an ageing population unable to leave or unwilling to leave. Companies with more than a quarter of a million people will have to let go people at different levels at different ages. Look at the army – an havaldar works from age 18 to age 35years. It is only above a particular rank that people can go on till they are 60. Similarly the IT companies will have to let go of people at different levels at different ages! No, that is not going to happen. So what will TCS and Infy do with people above 55 years who are not reskilling or re-tooling? No. Nothing. This will hurt soon, if not already hit.
However I have been screaming that if you buy say 170 shares at Rs. 900 – chances are that 100 of those shares will get bought at 1150 (assumption) and you will be left with 70 shares in that demat account. The cost of these shares are now less – assuming you set off the profits against the holding cost. This cannot be a bad strategy for the short run.
You are making the following assumptions:
- you will buy at 900 or lower
- you will buy 170 shares or lesser
- you will be eligible for participating in the buyback
- the buyback will happen
- you will get your money quickly – the interest cost has been ignored.
this is something that many people are doing. No vested interest. Personally I do think that the shit has just started coming out of Infosys, attrition rate is high, and it is not a great share to keep in my portfolio, However that is a personal view.
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