The scariest place to be in a boom is a Mutual Fund Conference. I had a small speaking slot so I was there..and saw about 800 bulls and even met a few of them.
There are IFAs and IFAs. Those who think that real return, nominal return, etc. are just some words from Mumbo Jumbo and can be ignored 🙂
Well the consensus is ‘God is in Heaven..and all’s well with the world’.
I said true but ‘aasman mein hai khuda aur zameen pe hum…aajkal woh is taraf dekta hai kum’ – that is the problem!!
A share price is made up of EPS and PE. Let us say I asked you to buy a share at Rs. 100 because it had an EPS of Rs. 10 and a PE of 10. (2015).
In 2016 I told you…see I am such a genius now the price is Rs. 150 (EPS 10 and a PE of 15)
In 2017 I told you …see I am almost there in the genius list the price is 200 (EPS 10 and PE of 20).
Well it is not so bad but just go and see the top 100 shares held by MUTUAL FUNDS. On a month to month basis they are increasing the share holding IN ALL THE SHARES that they hold. Simple if they have Cummins to the extent of 8% …then out of the inflows that they get they will more or less buy 8% cummins!! LOL..
Many things scare me. One is the high end Wealth Managers are scared to buy..so they suggest trading in shares. So even a guy like me ends up trading in a nice well run company like Shanthi Gears or even Cummins. It is scary to take delivery of Cummins at 1100 or 1040 🙂
“Subra I had Rs. 10 crores and since I had no clue…I deposited it in a Mutual fund.”
This is an often hear statement these days – only the amount varies.
If this is not a bull market, which is?
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