The word B can stand for Bright or Bleak. Let us look at the optimistic side (Bright) side first….

 

  • Rs. 5000 crores a month is flowing into the Mutual fund industry – predominantly non debt
  • Inflation is at 3% giving real returns (pre tax) even in savings account
  • Unemployment is not raising its ugly head like it used to in the past
  • Thanks to low inflation, interest rates are likely to go down
  • Money is moving from RE and gold to financial assets
  • Demonetisation has brought more money from the cupboards into the bank accounts
  • Indian market cap is now very close to Germany and Canada…and rising!
  • Namo in an election gimmick (or whatever) may drop the IT rates DRAMATICALLY
  • The drop in rates could be attributed to Demo and GST

 

What is the bleak side?

  • The world needs a bubble to break
  • A rising market is a good place to sell rather than buy?
  • Not enough jobs are being created in the world
  • IT and Pharma may not grow at a great pace going forward
  • Agricultural Infra development is only being talked about
  • Market cap of cos. like life insurance and mutual funds may not be sustained
  • there is OBVIOUSLY some kind of a bubble being built in many industries
  • too many website and apps are pushing mutual funds – this may implode
  • With IT not recruiting enough, job creation could take a big hit.
  • FII money may start booking profits
  • All the PE increasing activities are over
  • Corporate profitability is not increasing at a great rate
  • Growth is more in the minds – the numbers are not adding up at all
  • Income tax compliance still low – need to see the nos. add up, and FAST

so please decide whether B stands for Bright or Bleak…

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