The word B can stand for Bright or Bleak. Let us look at the optimistic side (Bright) side first….
- Rs. 5000 crores a month is flowing into the Mutual fund industry – predominantly non debt
- Inflation is at 3% giving real returns (pre tax) even in savings account
- Unemployment is not raising its ugly head like it used to in the past
- Thanks to low inflation, interest rates are likely to go down
- Money is moving from RE and gold to financial assets
- Demonetisation has brought more money from the cupboards into the bank accounts
- Indian market cap is now very close to Germany and Canada…and rising!
- Namo in an election gimmick (or whatever) may drop the IT rates DRAMATICALLY
- The drop in rates could be attributed to Demo and GST
What is the bleak side?
- The world needs a bubble to break
- A rising market is a good place to sell rather than buy?
- Not enough jobs are being created in the world
- IT and Pharma may not grow at a great pace going forward
- Agricultural Infra development is only being talked about
- Market cap of cos. like life insurance and mutual funds may not be sustained
- there is OBVIOUSLY some kind of a bubble being built in many industries
- too many website and apps are pushing mutual funds – this may implode
- With IT not recruiting enough, job creation could take a big hit.
- FII money may start booking profits
- All the PE increasing activities are over
- Corporate profitability is not increasing at a great rate
- Growth is more in the minds – the numbers are not adding up at all
- Income tax compliance still low – need to see the nos. add up, and FAST
so please decide whether B stands for Bright or Bleak…
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