I read about 2oo pages a day..well most of the days to be more truthful..and one of the things I received was a mail from an equity brokerage friend…a fellow CA of similar vintage.. this is based on his mail…views are mine 🙂

he says:

India’s GDP grew at at 7.4% against expected 7.3%. > This GDP growth was the highest even ahead of China.
>
> Manufacturing grew at 9% …indirect tax collection has also grown. Direct taxes has also grown.

REMEMBER: THE sensex has Tata steel, Reliance,  Ongc, the oil companies – and commodities have got whiplashed.
>
> The small steps taken by the govt, which were heretofore not visible are being seen. Actually being read / heard. Will take some more time before it is felt. One insurance writer (general) says he gets many infra underwriting requests regularly. Fund manager of an infra fund is more bullish on infra than on fmcg and pharma. He has been for 6 months, and that could be a good indicator too..but fund managers are always bullish.
>
> Economists and large brokerage houses are targeting a near 8% growth in GDP next year. Well IMF said that. Citi, GS and MS have given figures from 7.5 to 7.9..so there is NOBODY below 7.5
>
> The Parliament is in debate mode…it is working…no walkouts. NO COMMENTS, fingers crossed.
>
> The PM has reached out to the opposition to try and get a consensus on GST and other bills pending approval.
>
> All nos taken by analysts are based on a GDP growth of less than 7%. Will the higher growth not translate into better bottom lines?
>
> The RBI has paused today…hope it also says what is evident in nos….some confidence in an improving economy.
>
> What would happen if the Fed would, after increasing interest rates, gave a dovish commentary?

Would the other currencies not rise against the USD. A lot of shorts on the euro would get cut. Would then the INR not rise as well? Then in that case would FIIs not want to get in money now rather than later. To benefit both from currency and stock appreciation. (his view, I am not sure)
>
> Will the focus shift from USA, Europe to China, India and other far east countries? Likely and India would all the more be benefited due higher growth rates and cad and fiscal deficit being under control.

The only thing worrying me is the NPA in the banks..and hopefully not in our portfolios through the courtesy of mutual funds…hope, fingers crossed…

i find Deepak Shenoy saying how deflation is helping the numbers stay at 7.4%

http://capitalmind.in/2015/12/the-gdp-in-charts-deflation-helps-indian-economy-grow-7-4-but-nominal-growth-at-6/

 

and if you want a contrarian view there is always Vivek Kaul…

https://teekhapan.wordpress.com/2015/12/01/11-reasons-why-india-growing-at-7-4-is-simply-not-believable/

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  1. I am pretty optimistic that GST bill will be passed in this session, hope even the land reorganization bill will be cleared in later sessions to boost investments.

  2. I too am quite optimistic about India and the Indian Equity market.
    And i would like to believe things are on the upswing at some level and
    the efforts will show results in a bit.

    But the reality for now is very different on the ground level where small businesses/shopkeepers/individuals across sectors are struggling very badly.
    I see it everyday, the actual market is very bad with defaults, liquidity issues and low sales.

    I hope this starts to change soon as well, so that we can see some real change on the ground.

    🙂

  3. Increasing taxes on everything (most of all in petrol/diesel) and not reducing income tax is not good for common man. Now GST with at least 18% will kill us even more. Only office going people bear the brunt of this, all the businessmen (especially small ones) get away paying little or no tax.
    India’s tax to benefit (like road, water etc) ratio must be the worst in the world. I think so much taxation will cause demand to drop and will kill the businesses as well.

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