Where will the market be in April 2016? or say September 2015?

Frankly I do not know, and it does not matter. To make money in the equity markets, you need not know where the market will be 6 months from now or 12 months from now. It is completely irrelevant too.

You should have the ability to handle whatever the market does. You have to reach a stage of ‘indifference’ to the market. If suppose I can tell you with 100% accuracy that the market will give you a 12% return for the next ONE year, how will it matter? Even assuming that I am accurate it will not matter at all.

It would be far far more useful if I can predict a 40% fall or a 49% rise in the market. If at the beginning of the year you are willing to go 0% equity or a 90% equity the above prediction would have mattered. I am 90% in equity ALWAYS and so it does not matter about what you tell me about equity. My greatest strength is that I can take all the volatility and live with that. I have lived with the volatility of Franklin Prima over the past 15 years, and not regretted it. My belief was not in the quarterly performance, but in the fund manager, and I could stick around with the volatility. Like I stuck around with Franklin India Blue chip since the 1990s…or early 2001…

One of the richest men I know (stock market created genius) who has grown many people’s wealth, cannot predict the next 24 hours of the equity market. He accurately forecast some of the super multi baggers and held on to them for a couple of decades, without any worries. I have seen him pick up 2 million shares of a big company and he has been holding it for the past 23 years – while trading in them regularly!!

I really do not know anybody who knows anybody who can predict the markets. It is amazing to see 7 channels, 5 pink papers, and a zillion analysts trying to predict the movements in the equity market. I am actually more amazed to see these “market experts” come on television and predict wrongly day in and day out. They must be thick skinned and we must be fools to get confused between serious money making and entertainment channels.

When I talk about money / wealth creation for young people I remind the employees of good companies that they could pick up small numbers of shares of their OWN company (it does not work well, mind you) while doing a big chunky SIP on a regular basis. Sadly eve n people who have spent say 10 years in good companies like Cipla, HuL, Colgate, Lupin, Wipro, Asian Paints, Dr. Reddys Labs, Hdfc, Hdfc bank, …have not taken the initiative to build their own portfolios. Normally their argument is “Company does not have a regular plan….” or ‘we did not get enough ESOP’ or ‘the company should have given us the shares at a discount’.

Gimme a break. Stop watching television – or switch channels.

Remember NOBODY predicted the Great Depression. Nobody predicted the Japanese market decline.

Americans believe that ‘dollar cost averaging works’ because that country has been able to control world politics. At least in India for the foreseeable future SIP will work. Making a quick start is far more important than making a perfect start after 2 years!! Do It.

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  1. When I started off with direct equities, I was a regular follower of the news channels. With Sips I rarely track the markets, only thought is on how to increase the amounts.

  2. Subra, I want to understand about ETFs, If you could guide me for Nifty etf , junior nifty, bank nifty etc.

    How I can buy and sell in these funds. I want to understand more about these if you could guide me.



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