First of all the caveat: What you do with your own budget and life is far, far, far more important in your personal life.

What Jaitely does with the budget is more of academic, economic or political interest. It should not really matter too much.

However, in a country with so much noise about the budget and people wanting big bang reforms, let us see what is really happening.

First take the case of Mr. Mistry of the Tata Group. No comments about the budget, no comments about infra, no complaints, but goes about substantially building the group. I mean consolidating.

He has not announced any big acquisition, de merger, overseas listing, ….etc. etc. However, he has gone about slowly selling a small piece of land here and there, some mining interest in Indonesia, made sure Starbucks role out is happening well – the pricing is just about perfect. He pulled out of a bank license. He is investing in a car factory in China and now in the mecca of the car industry, USA.

Of course our media does not think of this as a big news, but do not be surprised to see Tata Motors double from here. Markets have respect for cash flow. Media has respect for Virat Kohli giving gaalis to a scribe. Choose your poison.

Cut to Narendra Modi’s budget. Just like Mr. Mistry, Na Mo too knew what was important. External Affairs. If he did not do big level marketing your investment bankers could not have gone and attracted money to be invested in India. Then GAAR went out of the window. The IT department was asked to back off its aggression. ‘Establishment of office’ – the stupid clause went. So a Sandip Sabhrawal can manage Mr. Bill Gates’s money sitting in India.

Hey, THESE ARE NOT RADICAL, but these changes will make money available for the Infra spending that we need.

Committing US $ 12 billion for infra (much needed of course) while leaving $ 40 billion for the poor is not easy, it has been done.

Infra spending will increase strength to concentrate on poverty alleviation programs. Setting up toilets for the poor – including schools – will ensure women’s safety and women coming to school. The urban elite does not seem to appreciate this at all.

Good roads are a prerequisite for a bigger manufacturing India. This is not rocket science, is it?

Like any good company the investments have to be made and then you need patience. When Aditya Puri of Hdfc bank raises money in 2015 Jan – you KNOW he is expecting the wholesale banking is going to grow in 2015, and 2016. This confidence comes from seeing the Na Mo government work.

The Railway budget and the Union budget have BOTH brilliantly incorporated Na Mo’s wish list of Investment led growth.

Now go out there and invest YOUR time and effort towards YOUR growth. Do an annually increasing SIP. The market CANNOT GO UP TOO FAST – remember at 30k index you have already seen a 50% growth last year on the indices.

Temper your expectations, but yes fasten your seat belts. We may just take off. 8% growth? 8.3% growth?

who knows?

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  1. Committing US $ 12 billion for infra (much needed of course) while leaving $ 40 billion for the poor is not easy, it has been done –

    That’s why NPS, EPF, PSU divestment funds are there for!

  2. @hemant it’s “Jaguar Land Rover Considering U.S. Plant”.. Tata earns substantial revenue from JLR operations. Both Jaguar and Land Rover are considered status symbol here.
    I do not think they plan to sell Tata brand in USA, it’s highly competitive. Suzuki had declared bankruptcy in USA few year’s ago.

  3. Subra, I had a question for you. What do you think of the 4% SWR (based on the trinity studies) in an Indian context? Will it work over a 30 or a 50 year period?

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