Has the market gone up too fast?

Will it compensate for the non performance from 2008 to 2014 Jan/ Feb?

Will the NaMo impact take the market to 100,000 in his tenure?

So will the market come down now?

Read this OLD ARTICLE (WRITTEN in 2008) – just the numbers have changed…facts remain the same, the conclusion remains the same..Read on: 

As is fashionable and necessary there is a discussion on a leading channel about how the market will behave. Of course to quote Taleb “Sensible sound bytes is an oxymoron”. So please listen to all the noise and come to your own conclusion.

There is Shankar sharma who is predicting that the market might see 10,500 (when he says market can fall 50% from its previous top, I guess this is what he means), says we are in a bear market. He says the bear market can last 2-3 years.

Then there is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala who says market the market is in a correction mode – part of a bull market and this phase can last 12-18 months.

Frankly all these experts are guessing – and they are looking into a teleprompter or a tv camera not a crystal ball.

Getting the market right means –

1.getting the direction right (from 21k, the market will GO DOWN),

2.say by how much (it will go to 14,000),

3. how long it will be there (time that it will spend at say 14k), and by implication

4. when will it start going up. AND HAVE THE CONVICTION TO STAND BY IT.

Like John Templeton, I also do not know anybody who knows anybody who can get all the factors correct, all the time, every time. So stop listening to sure fire timing success stories – it requires too much discipline to be successful with Technical skills.

– See more at: http://www.subramoney.com/2008/05/what-will-mr-market-do/#sthash.d58Aq87U.dpuf

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  1. Very well said, Subra. This subjectivity of opinions is one of the risk attached to equities. Frankly if anyone has that crystal ball, in first place, they need not to look into a teleprompter or a tv…they will just take position and profit from it calmly sipping tea. Fact that they are look into TV shows that they are no prediction experts.

  2. Well, at the top of Harshad Mehta euphoria, market was at 800. People said the market is finished after the scam was unearthed. Look at it now.
    It is useless trying to predict the market.

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