Long ago I had posted about my mistakes…let me again write about some recent mistakes. Some are so fundamentally wrong after spending so much time in the market that one keeps wondering why such mistakes happen..
There were 3 companies that I was tracking – I have a position in just one of them – and constantly have a trading position in all 3.
When Cholamandalam, LnT Finance, and JM Financial – and specifically was tracking them for the RBI’s much awaited banking licence. I have no clue what the market thought about the status of their applications (if any – no proof of whether Chola was intersted in a banking license).
When the names were announced, L&T Finance was at 82+, Chola was at 270 and JM was at 26-7.
I thought the would all fall – by at least 15% – as an immediate reaction to the RBI announcement. Well nothing happened. L&TF is today looking weak at 64, Chola looking STRONG at 298 and JM at about 28 is moving sideways.
Luckily I had NO TRADING POSITION in any of them, so there was no financial loss. However assuming that I took my view seriously and GONE SHORT in all the 3, chances are I would have lost money, not gained money.
The other power on which I gave a sell call was Tata Power at 85-6. Logic? When people see new shares in their portfolios – the right shares would be listed soon (if not already done).
Well the share is at 78 as I write this.
I wish I had gone short at 85.
Why did I not short Tata Power? Why did I not sell of the TP in my core portfolio?
Greed I guess. I had put a sell at 87 – but did not go and push my broker to sell at any price….
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