I kept saying that the market perceives that the worst quarter – for a short time at least was the Q ended Dec 2011. Why this quarter?

The interest rate increase was felt fully, sales were down…and obviously profits were expected to be down.

It is in such a time that the shares (which had already been hammered) react saying ‘now the worst is over’. So when a company announces bad / poor results, share prices go up. This is exactly what happened.

Shares like Cummins, Cholamandalam, Tata Motors, even Mahindra Holiday Resorts (i am still waiting for good encouraging numbers from this company before committing to more shares of this company!) have all gone up.

However many people missed the bus – and those people are now over rationalising the rise. Many of them are waiting to buy. And all of them need some stories AS TO WHY THE MARKET HAS TO COME DOWN. Fantastic.

They have p/e theories, currency theories, Nri theories, cash flow theories………

well, well…let us see

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  1. My theory :
    I guess PIIGS tsunami is yet to come. Even if it does not come, there will be enough recession to decrease the share price.
    One can always say that ECB will start printing Euros but I dont think they will.

  2. Mr.Subra,

    Please do a post on DTC and NRE interest rate increase.How long will it remain?
    Many of my collegues here are great fan of yours.Thanks a ton.

  3. Subra sir

    Even SN admitted admitted of missing the rally & is expecting value and volatility to bring him money this year..

  4. @sanjay singhaniya. er,did you miss the massive swaps the US Fed did with the ECB? the fed is printing on behalf of the europeans now. it is all print print baby

  5. Hi Kaushik

    Sankaran Naren of ICICI a well respected and followed by many as we make him handle our money. He is expecting more volatility than value in 2012 though he is known for the latter.

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