Investment Myths: Market timing..

“This is a good time to enter the market”

What bull shit. Complete bull. Nobody, repeat nobody knows whether it is a good time to enter the market or not to enter the market.

So what do we do? We watch TV or ask our broker.

If the TV anchor says wait for 5 months, they lose a viewer for 5 months.

So we ask our broker. He lives on the velocity of our portfolio.

Both love you. They cannot hurt themselves, can they?

So they say..

‘get out of volatile stocks like commodities and get into defensives like fmcg, pharma etc’

or ‘rate sensitives will find it difficult if interest rates go up – and we are at the upper end of the interest rate cycle…so get out of rate sensitives like …’

or

‘the markets are overheated, it would make sense to sell infrastructure stocks and enter day to day consumables like fmcg’

….was it not Warren Buffet who said if you ask a barber ‘do i need a hair cut?’ what will he say

“This way…Sir!”

Why do I have to remind you regularly…you know it na?’

 

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5 Responses to “Investment Myths: Market timing..”

  1. Subra,

    Wiser words ……… but how many actual implements…. The majority are suckers for action.

  2. Subra,

    Wise words ……… but how many actually implements…. The majority are suckers for action.

  3. Barry John

    Why do people get a feeling I am here to change the world…

    How does it matter..people have a complete, democratic right to s…w their portfolios.

    all the best…

  4. In order to “time the market”, one must necessarily believe that the market’s movement has a harmonic rhythm; some perfer to use the word ‘efficient’. Both of them are not true. So, the argument collapses. Q.E.D

    There’s a sucker born every minute in this World. It’s our job to get him before someone else does!

    — P T Barnum, Circus owner.

    Sounds familiar?

  5. Subra, market timing may have different connotations depending on the conditions – as you yourself quote so many times that before doing a financial plan or alloction etc one has to get the circumstances / conditions / profile etc analyzed for each individual.

    So for a person, who is keen to allocate more of his long term money into equities (because he was enlightened recently on the benefits of equity versus FDs lets say)….and was waiting for quite sometime to take such bold steps…got lucky now, and this falling market can act as an encouragement to take those bold steps now.

    But if you are referring these comments in context of a daily soap opera actors of biz channels, then perhaps ur interpretation is good fit.

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