When the index was at 21000 we all were sure that it was just a little while..and we would be at 25000….well it never happened…then at 9k we were sure it would be at 6k..but it never got there either.

The way we think so, is affected by the ‘Recency effect’ – the events closest to us ..we think will continue…sadly it is not always so…

As is customary there will now be a series of interviews to find out whether we are in a bull market or a bear market.

Udyan Mukherjee / others of his ilk will be speaking to a host of experts to ask for their views.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala – (whose call on the IT stocks was bang on target) MAY say we are IN a BULL market, but we are going through a correction. And it will last about 18 months.

Shankar Sharma – MAY BE of the opinion that we are in a BEAR market which can last 2-3 years.

Frankly we are all searching for that “magic pill” which will tell us the correct answer.

Unfortunately, there is no asnwer. The teleprompter is not a crystal ball, sadly.

I think to be able to take any action (i.e. to know when to buy and sell) one needs to know the following:

1. At 21,000 you should have known the direction (markets will go down)

2. How low can the market go (say 14,300) (I have no clue, but some of my smart readers have a view on the market and on certain scrips – some views make me laugh, but what the hell!)

3. How long will it remain there?

4. When will it turn back up?

AND THEN HAVE THE CONVICTION that he is right even if he gets signs that he might be wrong!

And as John Templeton says, :

I do not know anybody who knows anybody who has been able to time the market EVERY TIME! Surely, it looks impossible!

So are we in a bear market, bull market, sideways market, linear bear run, etc. is actually known only to Mr. Benjamin Graham’s fictional character Mr. Market!

I know one thing though…if you keep saying the same thing, one day you will be right….do not believe?

Start saying ‘It will rain in Mumbai today’ – quickly you will be right one of these days…still not confident?

Start saying to ONE MAN ‘you will die today’……L O L

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  1. Your comment on Udyan Mukherjee and the clan seems to be mellowed down version!!….just as you said salespeople start believing in the lies that they sell, biz channel anchors also start considering themselves experts afte talking to so many of them!!

    So a junior anchor beceomes senior after a while (as senior guy leaves or starts own venture after making hefty front running bets), a new flunky is recruited and he/she starts treating the new “senior” guy as an expert!! This cycle is ok if there is a skilled based industry (e.g. CA, lawyers, engineering, doctors etc)…but in market analysis and forecasting!!

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