I normally do not write about politics but this are special times! There is a chance that the government will fall (this is a defeat for Anil Ambani) or the government will survive (there is enough that AS and AA can do to irritate Mukesh).
However, there is a good chance that if the UPA government survives this scare, it will call for elections as soon as they announce some populist schemes. However in the meanwhile both the brothers will take a few millions from their market capitalisation, and this will hurt the sensex.
Congress and SP need to collect money for the elections (and for 5 years of unemployment perhaps) so you will find some shocking policies, and this will hurt. Badly.
Anil’s fight will mean Mayawati will not clear any proposal of his in UP. Reliance Power has quoted prices which are difficult to achieve in the best of situation. In a revised situation like this, I guess you will be able to get his share at the same price at which he took it.
If there is a “windfall tax” on Reliance, will Mukesh hit with a “you got cheap spectrum tax” on Reliance Communication? A good idea.
Uncertainty, political (business) fights, snatching Mukesh’s plane (posturing?), Chidambaram at his giving best – he telephones people to reduce prices while giving salary hikes to govt employees,…will see the market swing sensationally. So, like a broker told me buy puts and calls – both will make money if you do not panic!!
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