great sirji, super to hear you.
You talked about japan’s longevity but forgotten the lost decade of japan, The capital market of 80’s has still not reached the earlier heights.
I don’t know if this can happen to India due to peak valuations and sip sahi hai, but how do one prepare for this. I am all bullish on equities like everyone else. I sip every month religiously.
But if before retirement(say 10 years) Indian markets hits the same issue as Japan of 80’s, I have not time to prepare for this as my corpus asset allocation is tilted towards equities and debt is insufficient for such long winter. My retirement will be totally screwed and I will have less time to wait for market recovery due to old age. I will have to literally beg outside temples or depend of others to survive.
Subramoneyfan2
If that happens … it could happen … there is a possibility… we will have a much bigger issues to deal and worry about instead of retire goal and corpus etc
SS
Hi Subramoneyfan, I wonder, what would take you move some of the money to FD/Debt instrument (or some other asset class) depending on your own confidence level? Each one has their own risk appetite, and a very thin line between greed and fear, safety and overconfidence..
As for Japan-India comparison, Japan population is 12 crores. India is 133 crores. People born in India every year = total population of Japan. India equity market penetration is dismally low. 1% of population. Even if market wipes out the excess from the existing players because of overvaluation in a fear season at a particular time, new players emerge and take their place for the next bull market cycle. (just like KapilDev-era to Kohli-era)
Finally, if you consider it like a zero-sum game (assuming not much money is going outside India), everything else a constant, during a mass sell-off (of excess) in Indian market, some one’s loss is going to be some one’s gain.
subramoneyfan
great sirji, super to hear you.
You talked about japan’s longevity but forgotten the lost decade of japan, The capital market of 80’s has still not reached the earlier heights.
I don’t know if this can happen to India due to peak valuations and sip sahi hai, but how do one prepare for this. I am all bullish on equities like everyone else. I sip every month religiously.
But if before retirement(say 10 years) Indian markets hits the same issue as Japan of 80’s, I have not time to prepare for this as my corpus asset allocation is tilted towards equities and debt is insufficient for such long winter. My retirement will be totally screwed and I will have less time to wait for market recovery due to old age. I will have to literally beg outside temples or depend of others to survive.
Subramoneyfan2
If that happens … it could happen … there is a possibility… we will have a much bigger issues to deal and worry about instead of retire goal and corpus etc
SS
Hi Subramoneyfan, I wonder, what would take you move some of the money to FD/Debt instrument (or some other asset class) depending on your own confidence level? Each one has their own risk appetite, and a very thin line between greed and fear, safety and overconfidence..
As for Japan-India comparison, Japan population is 12 crores. India is 133 crores. People born in India every year = total population of Japan. India equity market penetration is dismally low. 1% of population. Even if market wipes out the excess from the existing players because of overvaluation in a fear season at a particular time, new players emerge and take their place for the next bull market cycle. (just like KapilDev-era to Kohli-era)
Finally, if you consider it like a zero-sum game (assuming not much money is going outside India), everything else a constant, during a mass sell-off (of excess) in Indian market, some one’s loss is going to be some one’s gain.
SS
*People born in a decade.. sorry typo