First of all it is difficult to invest for those who have been brought up on television as a source of “market lessons”. So first of all shut if off.

The words that I have heard: Panic, crash, capitulation, bottom has been taken out,……

With such words in whatever context, they give you what sounds like sane advice: If you cannot take the volatility you should sell and go to debt markets.

This is not sane advice, it is perhaps stupid advice. One channel said “you SHOULD accept that there can be ANOTHER 20% fall in the indices”. Wrong. Completely wrong.

I have seen the sensex at 38000. When you say 20%…you mean 7500. So the sensex should be at 31500. Say another 20% means 6300. So the index should be 25000 or thereabouts. Yes if this channel is willing to buy, I will write options FOR THEM.

Ok let me not be so cruel. Its a funny situation when the index has not fallen – it is at an all time high or thereabouts. In facts the Nbfc which have fallen are still at a PE of 18. This is not cheap by any standards.

Then you will receive amazing advice like: book profits in nbfc (they are leveraged too much and interest rates will go up), buy IT (with a rising dollar, they will make a lot of money), buy metals (they are likely to do well)… I HEARD THIS. And more

I need to watch TV to write such posts. Luckily I do not get influenced by this. I was happy selling some metals, and some IT related stuff. I had bought IT when I saw the oil prices going up. I expected interest rates to go up (in sympathy with US), and I had to book profits in the IT sector. I am still fully invested in pharma, metals, and partly in IT. I am heavily invested in NBFC – and made some trading profits by selling and buying back (this is called delivery based trading, not naked trading).

I am looking at buying opportunity in metals, and some commodities like sugar. I was lucky to have sold Siemens and Cummins, and I bought them back as it fell I am unable to make up my mind about OMC. I do think it looks good, but I have no clue whether NaMo will hit them again if the US $ reaches say 80! Markets are easier to predict not Ministers.

I have been buying – should say nibbling in a small way – as well as selling shares that everybody is selling. Yes there are many opportunities. We need to understand that each company has to be analyzed and treated individually. At no point in time did I like indexing – and such fall in the market is good proof that you SHOULD look at your PORTFOLIO and not the index!

I have bought and sold…almost every day ….Monday to Friday. No clue what will I do today….

  1. In recent times, derivatives market picked up in a great manner thanks to discount brokers. Ever since markets became shorters paradise. If I compare on last 5 years at least in known circles, traders who were regularly shorting made more money than even long term equity investors. One does not need any great analysis or charts or software or tips. Daily short 5 stocks from different sectors and contain trigger loss, your one big win out of 5 will give handsome returns. In India there are certain stocks that you can blindly short eg. Jet airways, Suzlon, JP A, PFS and lots of PSUs, pharma, steel, sugar etc., and you will make great returns each day. Death of a genuine investor and investing principles need to rewritten. If you will hit up on stock with a Corp Gov issue or some rumor, there won’t be any end to its falling. No wonder, Ashwin Guj is making a killing out of trading where as all seasoned investors (Dolly, Koch, Kedia, Bakshi etc..) are licking their wounds.

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