Here is my view on some companies. No, this is not an invitation to invest. I do not gain or lose by what YOU do in your portfolio. I may be holding all these shares, or may have sold these shares. I may benefit by price movement – either way. So do your own research before you buy/sell/or deal in options in these companies.

The market has been cruel on some shares and been taking some companies sky high. I have some of these companies which have done very well, and I did sell some of it recently. Well I sold TCS, Wipro, Infosys, ….because I think at Rs. 74/5 the US $ has hit a good mid-term plateau.

Sadly when something starts to move..we think that there will be no friction….and it will move continuously. Well, I took a contrarian call as usual.

I bought some Cholamandalam, Dhfl, etc. and traded out when the SBI announcement came. Come on, the strong Nbfc do not need a bail out. I am still not so happy with the PE of these shares…but the dividends will soon become attractive. However, the need to de-leverage might hurt the smaller and weaker Nbfc. Will Icici bank and Sbi benefit by this? I do think so. The biggest private sector bank and the biggest public sector bank have been hammered out of shape, and investing in them is a contrarian call. However this is a purely tactical allocation, as these are NOT shares that I like in my permanent portfolio. The management just does not have any skin in the game, and Icici bank will continue to languish under the Chanda controversy. It is sad that the government finds only septa and octagenerians to handle complex banking issues. Sad, but I do not see the issues being sorted out (icici and ilfs) in a hurry. We will take our own sweet time. Sadly for Chanda she had to quit because of an archaic banking rule because of which she could be on leave only for 4 months. No, for me Icici bank cannot be a permanent part of my portfolio.

I do think that the OMC have also been beaten out of shape, and makes a good tactical call. IOC perhaps. I am worried only about the skin in the game and corruption in all psu in general. I had done the audit of HP in 1983, and I find that the attitude has not changed much. I know a few people there and I don’t feel very confident of being a shareholder for a long time.

I like TaMo. I do think that the current market cap does not do justice – but then I found the DVR attractive even at Rs. 200, and now it is at Rs. 100. I am a brave man and i walk with the tigers…so I can hold and do hold this, but I guess you will have to have the patience of an alligator or a vulture to make money. If you cannot think 2022…do not look at this counter. I am happy looking at this counter in 2022…if something happens earlier, I would be thrilled. BTW I have been holding this for 2/3 years as a trading call..and have been a shareholder since the 1990s anyway.

I am completely out of Bharti Airtel – except what I own through the mutual funds (only FT and icici have some hope in this company)…I feel that RIL will now want to increase the tariff. Remember they have something like 60% of the smart phone makes sense to increase the charges. Expect JIO to go aggressive on pricing soon – Diwali? so the eps of RIL will go up, and hopefully as the high tide lifts all boats, BA will also be lifted up. Happy to be sitting on this, but you might be better off buying RIL itself.

I like RIL now even more than what I liked a few quarters ago. Funnily I bought it for the bonus, and now I have a decent trading and investment quantity.

By the way this could be the contrarian part of my portfolio. I might still be holding some shares which contradict this….but hey I am running a blog not a PMS

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  1. sir please write about how much number of share of a particular company hold by any retail investor to earn decent divided or capital appreciation?

  2. I know this post is about taking contrarian view on the market, but I am still surprised you have exited TCS/Wipro/Infy. Again, I do not know your rationale for entering these counters. It could have been a trading call to ride the rupee depreciation wave. But the IT industry as such is making a structural come back. At 11% YoY constant currency growth rate that TCS posted yesterday, and digital revenues growing well over 40-50%, the flavour of the next growth wave seems to be entirely around digitisation. Considering the strength of these enterprises & their brands, wouldn’t it make sense to hold them in permanent portfolio? Your views?

    P.S – Not invested on any of these stocks, primarily due to current valuations.

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